Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
7%
Limited history-1.5pp
24h activity $303Closes 23 Apr 2027
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Current implied probability
34%Probability moved sharply over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
34%
24h Change
-20.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 20.5pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $1K and 24h activity is $620. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| François Hollande | 34.0% | -20.5pp | $1K | active |
| Jean Castex | 6.5% | -1.5pp | $10K | active |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 13.0% | -4.0pp | $10K | active |
| Éric Zemmour | 59.5% | -3.5pp | $899 | active |
| Manuel Bompard | 5.5% | -1.0pp | $10K | active |
| Carole Delga | 12.0% | -0.5pp | $9K | active |
| Valérie Pécresse | 10.5% | +2.0pp | $236 | active |
| Jordan Bardella | 8.0% | — | $11K | active |
| Mathilde Panot | 4.0% | -0.8pp | $9K | active |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 76.0% | — | $1K | active |
| Olivier Faure | 27.6% | -10.4pp | $389 | active |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 7.6% | +5.2pp | $98 | active |
| François Bayrou | 9.1% | -1.9pp | $9K | active |
| Gérald Darmanin | 11.5% | +1.5pp | $10K | active |
| Élisabeth Borne | 13.5% | -0.05pp | $46 | active |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 59.5% | +3.0pp | $355 | active |
| Dominique de Villepin | 52.5% | -1.0pp | $52 | active |
| Michel Barnier | 9.5% | -5.0pp | $215 | active |
| Marine Le Pen | 100.0% | +2.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 100.0% | +2.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Gabriel Attal | 100.0% | +8.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 23 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
7%
13%
60%
6%
12%
11%