Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $3KCloses 30 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
1%Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
1%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
48
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 0.1% | — | $112K | active |
| United Russia (ER) | 98.5% | +0.7pp | $125K | active |
| Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $98K | active |
| Civic Platform (GP) | 0.1% | — | $111K | active |
| Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $130K | active |
| Yabloko | 0.7% | -0.05pp | $37K | active |
| Rodina | 0.1% | — | $112K | active |
| New People (NL) | 0.3% | -0.3pp | $118K | active |
Probability sum: 100.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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