Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by October 31, 2026?
3%
Limited history-0.5pp
Lifetime volume $331Closes 1 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 66% probability for this outcome, a -5.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
66%Recent probability movement (down 5.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
66%
24h Change
-5.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 7.0pp, from 73% to 66%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC.
72%
10 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
72%
10 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
72%
10 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
72%
10 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
66%
11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
66%
14 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 5.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 65.5% | -5.0pp | $39K | active |
| October 31 | 2.5% | -0.5pp | $11K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC