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Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petro - Colombia President | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $80K | awaiting resolution |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $75K | awaiting resolution |
| Starmer - UK PM | 100.0% | +0.5pp | $107K | awaiting resolution |
| Merz - German Chancellor | 0.1% | — | $28K | awaiting resolution |
| Putin - Russia President | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $87K | awaiting resolution |
| Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | 0.1% | — | $81K | awaiting resolution |
| Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $54K | awaiting resolution |
| None before 2027 | 0.1% | — | $64K | awaiting resolution |
| Takaichi - Japan PM | 0.1% | — | $39K | awaiting resolution |
| Lecornu - France PM | 0.1% | — | $48K | awaiting resolution |
| Trump - USA President | 0.1% | — | $43K | awaiting resolution |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | 0.1% | — | $53K | awaiting resolution |
| Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | 0.1% | — | $75K | awaiting resolution |
| Macron - France President | 0.1% | — | $48K | awaiting resolution |
| Sheinbaum - Mexico President | 0.1% | — | $52K | awaiting resolution |
| Albanese - Australia PM | 0.1% | — | $48K | awaiting resolution |
| Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | 0.1% | — | $39K | awaiting resolution |
| al-Sharaa - Syria President | 0.1% | — | $64K | awaiting resolution |
| Newsom - California Governor | 0.1% | — | $49K | awaiting resolution |
| Milei - Argentina President | 0.1% | — | $57K | awaiting resolution |
| Lula da Silva - Brazil President | 0.1% | — | $114K | awaiting resolution |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | 0.1% | — | $71K | awaiting resolution |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 0.1% | — | $128K | awaiting resolution |
| Erdoğan - Türkiye President | 0.1% | — | $114K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.