Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
3%
Limited history+0.3pp
24h activity $15KCloses 10 Oct 2026
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Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 2.6% | +0.3pp | $434K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $135K | active |
| Pope Leo XIV | 3.1% | — | $89K | active |
| Greta Thunberg | 1.1% | — | $97K | active |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 0.3% | — | $122K | active |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 5.5% | -0.05pp | $142K | active |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 0.3% | — | $109K | active |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 0.3% | — | $78K | active |
| Charlie Kirk | 0.3% | — | $122K | active |
| UNRWA | 4.3% | — | $93K | active |
| Vladimir Putin | 0.1% | — | $124K | active |
| Julian Assange | 1.3% | -0.05pp | $86K | active |
| Khaled Mashal | 0.5% | — | $94K | active |
| Xi Jinping | 0.6% | -0.05pp | $106K | active |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 8.5% | +0.5pp | $94K | active |
| António Guterres | 0.7% | -0.05pp | $88K | active |
| International Court of Justice | 2.6% | — | $80K | active |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 2.1% | — | $121K | active |
| Narendra Modi | 1.3% | — | $103K | active |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 1.0% | — | $82K | active |
Probability sum: 36.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
3%
0%
3%
1%
0%
6%