Tech/AI
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will NewJeans release a song in 2026?
55%
Limited history+3.0pp
24h activity $2Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
41%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
41%
24h Change
+0.1pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NewJeans | 54.5% | +3.0pp | $20 | active |
| Twice | 40.5% | — | $154 | active |
| IVE | 100.0% | +5.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Aespa | 100.0% | +21.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Blackpink | 100.0% | +0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Itzy | 100.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Illit | 100.0% | +3.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Babymonster | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Le Sserafim | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| I-dle | 100.0% | +2.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed group officially releases a new song between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Songs released by individual members, subgroups, or any other configuration not under the listed group name will not qualify. If a song is released jointly by multiple groups credited equally as primary artists, the song will count for all of them. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or remixes will not count. The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
55%