Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?
8%
Limited history-0.8pp
24h activity $15Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
2%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
2%
24h Change
+0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $13K and 24h activity is $234. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5k-5k | 1.9% | +0.05pp | $13K | active |
| 101-1k | 7.5% | -0.8pp | $1K | active |
| 10k-25k | 1.9% | — | $11K | active |
| >100k | 4.8% | — | $9K | active |
| 1-100 | 81.2% | +1.1pp | $9K | active |
| 5k-10k | 0.8% | — | $10K | active |
| 1k-2.5k | 3.5% | -1.2pp | $9K | active |
| 25k-100k | 0.6% | — | $9K | active |
| 0 | 0.0% | -19.4pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 102.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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