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Current implied probability
12%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
12%
24h Change
-2.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $1K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 12.0% | -2.0pp | $1K | active |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | +4.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only tokens which are confirmed to have been launched by Donald Trump, either through posts from official social media channels, or otherwise confirmed by public statements will qualify. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
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No closely related markets found in the current catalog.
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