EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

8%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCLow-confidence move-1.5pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because a confidence cap is active in the latest market state.

Signal: Low

Current

8%

24h Change

-1.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

7

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
8.0%
No implied probability
92.0%
Liquidity
$6K
Market Activity
$27K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.