Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?
42%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $25KCloses 3 Jan 2027
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Current implied probability
4%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
4%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Thune | 41.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Steve Daines | 0.6% | — | $26K | active |
| Chuck Schumer | 39.5% | — | $16K | active |
| Tom Cotton | 3.5% | — | $28K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 0.2% | — | $25K | active |
| Patty Murray | 0.6% | — | $25K | active |
| Amy Klobuchar | 0.1% | — | $26K | active |
| John Barrasso | 0.6% | — | $25K | active |
| Cory Booker | 0.4% | — | $25K | active |
| Brian Schatz | 5.0% | — | $30K | active |
| Lindsey Graham | 0.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 91.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 3 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
42%
1%
40%
0%
1%
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