Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will there be between 125m and 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
15%
Limited history
24h activity $41Closes 3 Nov 2026
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Current implied probability
22%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
22%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 125-130m | 14.5% | — | $11K | active |
| 120-125m | 27.0% | — | $3K | active |
| 115-120m | 21.5% | — | $12K | active |
| 110-115m | 12.0% | — | $12K | active |
| 90-95m | 2.3% | -0.3pp | $3K | active |
| 100-105m | 1.8% | — | $11K | active |
| 105-110m | 6.5% | — | $11K | active |
| 130m+ | 5.5% | +0.1pp | $10K | active |
| 85-90m | 0.9% | — | $11K | active |
| <85m | 2.2% | — | $11K | active |
| 95-100m | 3.0% | +0.1pp | $11K | active |
Probability sum: 97.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
15%
27%
12%
2%
2%
6%