Crypto
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?
9%
Limited history-1.5pp
Lifetime volume $27KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Current implied probability
48%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
48%
24h Change
-6.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 6.8pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $1K and 24h activity is $1K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 47.5% | -6.8pp | $1K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 9.0% | -1.5pp | $626 | active |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | -1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
9%