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Last recorded probability
100%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify. This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 15 Aug 2026, 06:00 UTC