Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
1%
Limited history+0.3pp
24h activity $2KCloses 9 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25% | 1.4% | +0.3pp | $14K | active |
| 1.5% | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $19K | active |
| 3.5% | 9.1% | +0.7pp | $12K | active |
| 4.25% | 14.1% | +0.05pp | $12K | active |
| ≤1.0% | 0.5% | — | $31K | active |
| 2.0% | 0.5% | — | $24K | active |
| 2.75% | 0.7% | — | $24K | active |
| 1.25 | 0.6% | — | $24K | active |
| 2.5% | 0.6% | — | $12K | active |
| 1.75% | 0.5% | — | $22K | active |
| 3.75% | 41.1% | +2.3pp | $7K | active |
| 4.0% | 26.6% | +1.0pp | $5K | active |
| ≥ 4.5% | 5.0% | -0.3pp | $4K | active |
| 3.0% | 1.3% | — | $19K | active |
| 2.25% | 0.5% | — | $19K | active |
Probability sum: 102.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 9 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
1%
9%
14%
0%
0%