EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh

Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

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Movement Read

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Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.1%
No implied probability
99.9%
Liquidity
$16K
Market Activity
$103K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 22:28 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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