Finance
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 5.70% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?
12%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
51%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
51%
24h Change
+8.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 8.5pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is $54 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 5.70% | 11.5% | — | $419 | active |
| ↓ 5.90% | 17.5% | — | $381 | active |
| ↑ 6.75% | 84.0% | +1.5pp | $382 | active |
| ↓ 5.50% | 10.0% | — | $418 | active |
| ↑ 7.00% | 49.0% | +3.5pp | $17 | active |
| ↑ 7.25% | 51.0% | +8.5pp | $54 | active |
| ↓ 6.50% | 37.5% | -3.0pp | $48 | active |
| ↑ 7.50% | 39.0% | +0.5pp | $42 | active |
| ↓ 6.00% | 46.5% | +7.0pp | $23 | active |
| ↓ 6.25% | 44.0% | +5.5pp | $12 | active |
| ↓ 6.00% | 100.0% | +27.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 6.30% | 100.0% | -1.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 6.50% | 100.0% | +13.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 6.20% | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
12%
18%
84%
10%
49%
38%