Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
19%
Recent probability movement (up 0.2pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
98%
24h Change
+0.2pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
7
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.2pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Valve has announced the release of the new Steam Machine gaming console in early 2026. (see: https://store.steampowered.com/sale/steammachine) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Valve's Steam Machine 512GB edition is $700 or greater upon release. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. This market is specifically about the Steam Machine with 512GB of storage. The product must be named "Steam Machine" to qualify. If the Steam Machine 512GB edition gaming console is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Valve. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC
Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.
19%
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-11.5pp81%
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+2.0pp66%
+3.0pp26%
-5.0pp