Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
1%
Limited history+0.7pp
24h activity $49Closes 3 Nov 2026
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Current implied probability
20%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
20%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $9K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28–29 | 1.4% | +0.7pp | $10K | active |
| 22–23 | 27.0% | +2.0pp | $532 | active |
| 24–25 | 22.5% | +5.0pp | $9K | active |
| <22 | 30.0% | -1.0pp | $371 | active |
| 26–27 | 19.5% | -1.0pp | $9K | active |
| 32+ | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $9K | active |
| 30–31 | 1.3% | — | $8K | active |
Probability sum: 102.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of United States governor’s seats that will be held by the Republican Party as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
27%
23%
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1%