Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 10?
1%
Limited history-0.3pp
24h activity $34Closes 31 Aug 2026
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Current implied probability
1%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
-0.4pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.4pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $9K and 24h activity is $21. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1.3% | -0.3pp | $10K | active |
| 12+ | 0.3% | — | $11K | active |
| 5 | 3.0% | -0.3pp | $9K | active |
| 8 | 1.1% | -0.4pp | $9K | active |
| 6 | 1.1% | -0.05pp | $9K | active |
| <5 | 1.4% | — | $10K | active |
| 7 | 77.5% | +0.5pp | $9K | active |
| 11 | 7.8% | +0.8pp | $152 | active |
| 9 | 5.0% | +0.5pp | $9K | active |
Probability sum: 98.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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