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Geopolitics

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh

Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

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24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

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Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.1%
No implied probability
100.0%
Liquidity
$1.1M
Market Activity
$65.9M
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 22:28 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 23:39 UTC

What this market asks

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Current market read

This market assesses the likelihood of the Iranian regime being overthrown or ceasing to govern by June 30, 2026. It will resolve to 'Yes' if there is a clear break in the continuity of the Islamic Republic's governance, such as through revolution or military coup. If the regime remains in power or only undergoes routine political changes, the market will resolve to 'No'.

Key takeaways

  • Current market-implied probability at 0.05%
  • Volume of 65,929,032.78 indicates significant trading interest
  • Geopolitical context surrounding Iran's governance

Risks & uncertainties

  • Current probability reflects low market confidence in regime change
  • No 24h movement data available to assess recent trends
  • Resolution details depend on consensus reporting, which may vary

Resolution summary

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026. A consensus of credible reporting will determine the resolution, focusing on whether core structures of the regime have been dissolved or replaced.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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