Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
18%
Limited history-6.7pp
24h activity $16KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
3%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
3%
24h Change
+0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $9K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 4.25% | 18.3% | -6.7pp | $14K | active |
| ↓ 3.0% | 2.7% | — | $8K | active |
| ↓ 2.25% | 4.3% | +0.6pp | $4K | active |
| ↓ 2.75% | 2.5% | — | $10K | active |
| ↑ 4.5% | 3.1% | -2.4pp | $4K | active |
| ↑ 4.75% | 3.8% | -2.0pp | $1K | active |
| ↓ 0.5% | 2.0% | -1.1pp | $8K | active |
| ↓ 2.5% | 3.5% | -0.2pp | $5K | active |
| ↑ 5.25% | 2.6% | — | $2K | active |
| ↓ 0.25% | 3.2% | — | $8K | active |
| ↓ 3.25% | 9.5% | — | $6K | active |
| ↑ 5.5% | 2.7% | — | $3K | active |
| ↓ 1.5% | 3.8% | +0.3pp | $6K | active |
| ↓ 0% | 2.5% | — | $15K | active |
| ↓ 2.0% | 3.4% | +0.05pp | $9K | active |
| ↑ 5.0% | 3.0% | +0.05pp | $3K | active |
| ↓ 1.75% | 2.5% | -0.2pp | $8K | active |
| ↓ 1.25% | 1.5% | — | $12K | active |
| ↓ 1.0% | 3.8% | -0.2pp | $7K | active |
| ↓ 0.75% | 3.8% | +0.2pp | $8K | active |
| ↓ 3.5% | 100.0% | +0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
18%
3%
4%
3%
3%
4%