Politics

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?

5%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTCStable consensus

Market activity is moderate — moves should be interpreted with standard caution.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 4.5%
No implied probability: 95.5%
Liquidity: $4K
Market Activity: $27K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC

View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Vol $10KCloses 31 Dec 2026