EAEventAlpha
Crypto

Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 20 Gwei before 2027?

6%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCStable consensus+0.1pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

6%

24h Change

+0.1pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

7

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $1K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
5.7%
No implied probability
94.3%
Liquidity
$1K
Market Activity
$5K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab. This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold. A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC

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