EAEventAlpha
Tech / AI

Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026

40%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+9.9pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 9.9pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

40%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is up 9.9pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
40.5%
No implied probability
59.5%
Liquidity
$5K
Market Activity
$34K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 20:18 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 30 Jun 2026, 20:27 UTC

What this market asks

Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026

Current market read

This market is one outcome in the broader event "How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?" and asks whether Tesla's Q2 2026 deliveries fall between 400,000 and 425,000 vehicles. The current market-implied probability for this outcome is 40.45%, with a 24h movement of 9.9 percentage points. Because this is a grouped outcome, the volume and liquidity shown reflect this outcome's market activity only, not the full event.

Key takeaways

  • This outcome's market activity shows 24h volume of 1,062.729172 and total volume of 33,929.525238999995.
  • Liquidity is 4,699.2221, which may affect how easily positions can be traded in this outcome market.
  • The current market-implied probability moved 9.9 percentage points over 24h.

Risks & uncertainties

  • This is a grouped outcome, so the figures apply only to the 400k–425k outcome market, not the entire Tesla deliveries event.
  • Resolution depends on Tesla's published Q2 2026 delivery figures and the stated deadline in the description.
  • The market-implied probability is 40.45%, which is not a certainty.

Resolution summary

The market resolves according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher range bracket. No separate resolution-source field is stored; resolution details are based on the market description.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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