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Last recorded probability
40%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
40%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 475k+ | 34.8% | +9.1pp | $15K | awaiting resolution |
| 425k–450k | 14.5% | +5.0pp | $7K | awaiting resolution |
| 400k–425k | 40.5% | +9.9pp | $5K | awaiting resolution |
| 300k–325k | 0.3% | — | $9K | awaiting resolution |
| 375k–400k | 7.7% | -0.05pp | $7K | awaiting resolution |
| 450k–475k | 8.8% | -2.8pp | $14K | awaiting resolution |
| <300k | 0.2% | — | $5K | awaiting resolution |
| 350k–375k | 0.8% | -1.4pp | $7K | awaiting resolution |
| 325k–350k | 0.1% | — | $1K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.