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Current implied probability
37%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
37%
24h Change
+1.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.8pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $2K and 24h activity is $88. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Paypal will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Stripe by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying acquisition or acquisition announcement must include the acquisition of a controlling interest in Paypal by Stripe. A "controlling interest" is defined as an ownership stake sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions, typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting rights, governance rights, board control, or other mechanisms. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest, such as minority stake purchases, will not count. An announcement of a qualifying acquisition or merger by Paypal or Paypal and Stripe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Paypal and Stripe, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
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