Tech/AI
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?
25%
Limited history-0.3pp
Lifetime volume $27KCloses 31 Dec 2027
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Current implied probability
36%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
36%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $146 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2B–3B | 35.5% | -1.0pp | $146 | active |
| 3B–4B | 25.4% | -0.3pp | $421 | active |
| 10B–15B | 5.7% | — | $321 | active |
| 15B+ | 17.9% | +13.8pp | $316 | active |
| 4B–5B | 9.5% | — | $184 | active |
| 7B–10B | 26.3% | +0.05pp | $327 | active |
| 5B–7B | 5.3% | — | $230 | active |
| <2B | 7.2% | -0.05pp | $165 | active |
| No IPO before 2028 | 7.3% | -0.1pp | $177 | active |
Probability sum: 140.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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