EAEventAlpha
Sport

Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?

89%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+1.0pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 1.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

89%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
88.5%
No implied probability
11.5%
Liquidity
$443K
Market Activity
$166K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
18 Jun 2026, 21:42 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 21, 2026 If Spain wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

Resolution source: https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 21 Jun 2026, 16:00 UTC

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