EAEventAlpha
Sport

Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-0.1pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because the market data is stale; liquidity is $7.9M and 24h volume is $4.4M. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.1%
No implied probability
100.0%
Liquidity
$7.9M
Market Activity
$106.8M
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
26 Jun 2026, 22:38 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 30 Jun 2026, 20:28 UTC

What this market asks

Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Current market read

This market asks whether South Korea will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It is one outcome market within the broader "World Cup Winner" event, so the volume and liquidity shown here reflect trading on South Korea specifically, not the full event. The current market-implied probability is 0.05%, with a 24h movement of -0.1 percentage points.

Key takeaways

  • This outcome's market activity shows substantial trading volume and liquidity.
  • The current market-implied probability is very low at 0.05%.
  • The 24h movement is negative at -0.1 percentage points.

Risks & uncertainties

  • This is one outcome within a grouped event, so the figures apply only to South Korea's market.
  • Resolution details rely on the stored description; no separate resolution-source field is stored.
  • The market is active and not closed, so the outcome remains unresolved.

Resolution summary

The market is set to resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. It will resolve immediately to "No" if South Korea becomes unable to win under FIFA rules, such as being eliminated in the knockout stage. If the tournament is permanently canceled or not completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM, it will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source is official FIFA information, with credible reporting also allowed; no separate resolution-source field is stored, so resolution details are based on the market description.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 20 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC

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