EAEventAlpha
Finance

Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-2.4pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 2.4pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.4pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.1%
No implied probability
100.0%
Liquidity
$3K
Market Activity
$11K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 22:28 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 23:39 UTC

What this market asks

Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Current market read

This market is focused on whether the official CME settlement price for Silver (SI) futures will exceed $65 on the final trading day of June 2026. It will resolve to 'Yes' if the price is higher than $65, and 'No' otherwise. The resolution will be based solely on the official settlement price published by CME Group for the Active Month of Silver futures.

Key takeaways

  • current market-implied probability at 0.05%
  • recent movement of -2.4%
  • trading volume of 72.67

Risks & uncertainties

  • Resolution details depend on CME's official settlement price.
  • Market activity reflects this specific outcome only, not the entire event.
  • Data may be subject to changes based on CME's methodology.

Resolution summary

The market will resolve based on the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the price is higher than $65, it resolves to 'Yes'; if not, it resolves to 'No'. Only days with published settlement prices will be considered.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

Resolution source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.settlements.html. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 17:30 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.