Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
50%
Limited history+10.3pp
24h activity $9KCloses 13 Nov 2026
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Current implied probability
47%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowProbability history temporarily unavailable
The latest stored chart point does not match the current headline probability closely enough to display honestly.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 11.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $5K and 24h activity is $920. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 50.0% | +10.3pp | $1K | active |
| Shohei Ohtani | 46.5% | -11.0pp | $5K | active |
| Matt Olson | 0.6% | -1.3pp | $1K | active |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $1K | active |
| Mookie Betts | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $3K | active |
| Juan Soto | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.1% | — | $920 | active |
| Bryce Harper | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Otto Lopez | 0.1% | — | $650 | active |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Jacob Misiorowski | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| James Wood | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Andy Pages | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Jordan Walker | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
Probability sum: 97.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 13 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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