Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $656KCloses 1 Jun 2026
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Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demeke Mekonnen | 0.5% | — | $26K | active |
| Shimelis Abdisa | 0.3% | — | $30K | active |
| Abiy Ahmed | 96.5% | +0.1pp | $21K | active |
| Adanech Abiebie | 0.7% | +0.05pp | $18K | active |
| Belete Molla | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $22K | active |
| Gedion Timothewos | 1.6% | — | $16K | active |
| Alesa Mengesha | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $19K | active |
| Berhanu Nega | 0.7% | — | $20K | active |
Probability sum: 101.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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96%
1%
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2%
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