Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
92%
Limited history+10.0pp
24h activity $2KCloses 1 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
7%Recent probability movement (down 10.5pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
7%
24h Change
-10.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 10.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Moulton | 7.0% | -10.5pp | $28K | active |
| Ed Markey | 91.5% | +10.0pp | $15K | active |
| Ayanna Pressley | 0.1% | — | $13K | active |
| Alexander Rikleen | 0.1% | — | $13K | active |
Probability sum: 98.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Massachusetts. If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
92%
0%
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