EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

3%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTCLow-confidence move+1.9pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.

Signal: Low

Current

3%

24h Change

+1.9pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

9

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.9pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
2.6%
No implied probability
97.3%
Liquidity
$8K
Market Activity
$2K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 04:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire. If no 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 8 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.