Finance
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?
6%
Limited history
24h activity $75Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
7%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
7%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$6,000 | 5.5% | — | $8K | active |
| $7,500-$8,000 | 21.5% | -1.5pp | $893 | active |
| $7,000-$7,500 | 12.5% | -4.5pp | $1K | active |
| >$8,000 | 38.0% | +0.5pp | $2K | active |
| $6,500-$7,000 | 13.0% | -1.5pp | $835 | active |
| $6,000-$6,500 | 7.0% | — | $2K | active |
Probability sum: 97.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 21:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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