Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
63%
Limited history-3.5pp
24h activity $4KCloses 30 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
86%Recent probability movement (down 0.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
86%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 86.3% | -0.5pp | $204K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 63.0% | -3.5pp | $30K | active |
| August 31, 2026 | 25.5% | — | $7K | active |
| January 31, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| December 31 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 31 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| February 28, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| November 30 | 0.0% | +0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | +3.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -4.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.0% | -3.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31, 2026 | 0.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 15, 2026 | 0.0% | -1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 19, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
63%
26%