Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
51%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $9KCloses 31 Dec 2028
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Current implied probability
8%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
8%
24h Change
-0.1pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $20K and 24h activity is $43. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Vannacci | 8.0% | -0.1pp | $20K | active |
| Giorgia Meloni | 51.0% | — | $2K | active |
| Silvia Salis | 7.5% | -0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Elly Schlein | 14.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Giuseppe Conte | 12.0% | -0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Matteo Salvini | 0.3% | — | $12K | active |
| Mario Draghi | 2.8% | — | $10K | active |
| Antonio Tajani | 0.3% | — | $11K | active |
| Carlo Calenda | 0.3% | — | $11K | active |
| Angelo Bonelli | 0.3% | — | $11K | active |
| Matteo Renzi | 0.7% | — | $11K | active |
| Guido Crosetto | 0.5% | — | $11K | active |
Probability sum: 98.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2028, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
51%
8%
15%
12%
0%
3%