Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
1%
Limited history+0.3pp
24h activity $4KCloses 18 Aug 2026
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Current implied probability
97%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
97%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $13K and 24h activity is $278. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Bilzerian | 1.3% | +0.3pp | $78K | active |
| Aaron Baker | 1.6% | -0.05pp | $23K | active |
| Randy Fine | 97.4% | -0.05pp | $13K | active |
| Alexandra Van Cleef | 0.3% | +0.05pp | $32K | active |
| Ernest Audino | 0.1% | — | $21K | active |
| Charles Gambaro | 0.1% | — | $22K | active |
| Joshua Vasquez | 0.1% | — | $25K | active |
Probability sum: 100.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 18 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
2%
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