Crypto
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?
22%
Limited history+0.5pp
24h activity $9Closes 1 Jan 2028
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Current implied probability
52%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
52%
24h Change
+12.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
44
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 12.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $441 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 21.5% | +0.5pp | $784 | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 6.5% | — | $652 | active |
| March 31, 2027 | 52.0% | +12.0pp | $441 | active |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Puffpaw officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only an official token launched by Puffpaw will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Puffpaw (https://x.com/puffpaw), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
22%
7%