Loading the latest market intelligence…
Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John James | 100.0% | +3.6pp | $75K | resolved |
| Perry Johnson | 0.1% | -3.9pp | $84K | resolved |
| Mike Cox | 0.1% | — | $9K | resolved |
| Aric Nesbitt | 0.1% | — | $7K | resolved |
| Tom Leonard | 0.1% | — | $6K | resolved |
| Evan Space | 0.1% | — | $7K | resolved |
| Ralph Rebandt | 0.1% | — | $7K | resolved |
| Anthony Hudson | 0.1% | — | $7K | resolved |
| William Null | 0.1% | — | $7K | resolved |
| Karla Wagner | 0.1% | — | $6K | resolved |
| Joyce Gipson | 0.1% | — | $6K | resolved |
Probability sum: 100.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)