Sport
MediumMarket data current
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1%
Limited history
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Current implied probability
1%Recent probability movement (down 0.3pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
1%
24h Change
-0.3pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Ruiz | 1.1% | +0.1pp | $89K | active |
| Jude Bellingham | 0.3% | — | $301K | active |
| Harry Kane | 43.4% | +2.4pp | $297K | active |
| Lamine Yamal | 25.6% | +0.4pp | $394K | active |
| Rodri | 11.5% | — | $215K | active |
| Kylian Mbappé | 11.3% | -0.2pp | $204K |
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.3pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
0%
43%
26%
12%
11%
| active |
| Cole Palmer | 0.1% | — | $569K | active |
| Lionel Messi | 4.3% | -0.1pp | $197K | active |
| Erling Haaland | 0.5% | — | $266K | active |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 1.4% | -0.1pp | $208K | active |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 1.4% | — | $173K | active |
| Michael Olise | 0.3% | — | $288K | active |
| Federico Valverde | 0.1% | — | $548K | active |
| Pau Cubarsi | 1.2% | -0.3pp | $172K | active |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0.1% | — | $566K | active |
| Mohamed Salah | 0.1% | — | $557K | active |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0.1% | — | $534K | active |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 0.1% | — | $564K | active |
| Pedri | 0.1% | — | $523K | active |
| Raphinha | 0.1% | — | $538K | active |
| Declan Rice | 0.1% | — | $370K | active |
| Desire Doue | 0.1% | — | $569K | active |
| Vitinha | 0.1% | — | $517K | active |
| Julian Alvarez | 0.1% | — | $534K | active |
| Achraf Hakimi | 0.1% | — | $536K | active |
| Luis Diaz | 0.1% | — | $534K | active |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0.1% | — | $571K | active |
| Enzo Fernandez | 0.1% | — | $347K | active |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.1% | — | $447K | active |
| Rodrygo | 0.1% | — | $326K | active |
| Bukayo Saka | 0.1% | — | $402K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.