EAEventAlpha
Tech / AI

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026?

100%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTCStable consensus

Market activity is moderate — moves should be interpreted with standard caution.

Signal: Medium

Current

100%

24h Change

Not enough history

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

16

0%25%50%75%100%6:0010:0014:0017:0021:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
99.7%
No implied probability
0.3%
Liquidity
$20K
Market Activity
$24K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTC
View on Polymarket

Follow with Market Radar

Get an email when this market has a meaningful stored probability move or appears in the Daily Brief.

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models. Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count. Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.