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Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 0.3% | -0.3pp | $9K | awaiting resolution |
| Z.ai | 0.4% | -0.05pp | $10K | awaiting resolution |
| Meta | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $10K | awaiting resolution |
| DeepSeek | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $15K | awaiting resolution |
| xAI | 0.3% | — | $10K | awaiting resolution |
| Alibaba | 0.1% | — | $5K | awaiting resolution |
| Mistral | 0.1% | — | $6K | awaiting resolution |
| Baidu | 0.2% | — | $9K | awaiting resolution |
| Nvidia | 0.1% | — | $7K | awaiting resolution |
| Meituan | 0.1% | — | $3K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.