EAEventAlpha
Sport

Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

5%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTCMeaningful move-1.2pp (24h)

Probability moved down 1.2pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.

Signal: High

Current

5%

24h Change

-1.2pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

8

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.2pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
5.0%
No implied probability
95.0%
Liquidity
$137K
Market Activity
$1.3M
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to the continent of the country that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, currently scheduled for June 11-July 19, 2026. For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent). The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

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