Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
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Recent probability movement (up 4.1pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumProbability history will appear after additional syncs.
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 4.1pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior takes the field as a player in at least one official match for Brazil during the 2026 FIFA World Cup at the group stage or later. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any on-field appearance as a player will qualify, in regulation, stoppage time, extra time, for a shootout, etc. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Resolution deadline: 19 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.
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