Sport

Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?

Current implied probability

62%

Market data currentLow-confidence move+18.5pp (24h)

Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

62%

24h Change

+18.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 61.5%
No implied probability: 38.5%
Liquidity: $263
24h activity: $67
Lifetime volume: $9K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 08:02 UTC

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Movement Read

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Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 18.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $263 and 24h activity is $67. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
José Ramírez	0.2%	-2.3pp	$581	active
Nasim Nuñez	61.5%	+18.5pp	$263	active
Chandler Simpson	16.7%	-0.7pp	$483	active
Oneil Cruz	1.7%	+0.05pp	$10K	active
Nico Hoerner	0.1%	—	$461	active
Juan Soto	0.1%	—	$639	active
Brice Turang	0.2%	—	$531	active
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	10.3%	-0.1pp	$230	active
Jakob Marsee	1.4%	—	$10K	active
Elly De La Cruz	0.3%	—	$10K	active
José Caballero	3.1%	—	$715	active
Bobby Witt Jr.	1.0%	-0.05pp	$214	active
CJ Abrams	0.5%	+0.05pp	$623	active
Geraldo Perdomo	0.1%	—	$423	active
Jake McCarthy	0.3%	—	$387	active
Gunnar Henderson	0.1%	—	$678	active
Victor Scott II	0.1%	—	$857	active
Luis Robert Jr.	0.1%	—	$584	active
Trevor Story	0.1%	—	$618	active
Luisangel Acuña	0.1%	—	$558	active
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.1%	-0.05pp	$401	active
Corbin Carroll	0.3%	—	$545	active
Brenton Doyle	0.2%	—	$402	active
David Hamilton	0.1%	—	$262	active
Trea Turner	0.1%	—	$659	active
Josh Naylor	0.1%	—	$288	active
Randy Arozarena	0.4%	—	$376	active
Francisco Lindor	0.4%	—	$629	active
Carson Benge	0.2%	—	$238	active
Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.1%	—	$287	active

Probability sum: 104.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the player who steals the most bases during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records fewer caught stealings during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player with the higher on base percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more total bases during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC