EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?

89%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCLow-confidence move+1.0pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because a confidence cap is active in the latest market state.

Signal: Low

Current

89%

24h Change

+1.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

7

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
89.0%
No implied probability
11.0%
Liquidity
$8K
Market Activity
$65K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 25 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC

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