Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
4%
Limited history+0.6pp
24h activity $10Closes 25 Aug 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
94%Recent probability movement (down 2.3pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
94%
24h Change
-2.3pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.3pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas | 93.5% | -2.3pp | $11K | active |
| Jim Priest | 4.0% | +0.6pp | $12K | active |
| Troy Green | 0.1% | — | $9K | active |
| Rebekah LaVann | 0.3% | — | $9K | active |
Probability sum: 97.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 25 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
4%
0%
0%