Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?
2%
Limited history+0.6pp
24h activity $15Closes 19 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
12%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
12%
24h Change
-1.4pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.4pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $4K and 24h activity is $6. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | 1.6% | +0.6pp | $3K | active |
| Munetaka Murakami | 11.6% | -1.4pp | $4K | active |
| Carson Williams | 0.1% | — | $7K | active |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 1.1% | +0.1pp | $8K | active |
| Payton Tolle | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $11K | active |
| Brice Matthews | 0.1% | — | $7K | active |
| Leo De Vries | 0.1% | — | $6K | active |
| Carter Jensen | 0.1% | — | $11K | active |
| Connelly Early | 0.3% | — | $7K | active |
| Carlos Lagrange | 0.1% | — | $7K | active |
| Walker Jenkins | 0.1% | — | $6K | active |
| Max Clark | 0.1% | — | $11K | active |
| Kevin McGonigle | 83.5% | -0.5pp | $4K | active |
| Spencer Jones | 0.6% | — | $11K | active |
| Travis Bazzana | 0.7% | — | $6K | active |
| Chase DeLauter | 0.6% | — | $6K | active |
| Trey Yesavage | 0.7% | — | $7K | active |
| Colt Emerson | 0.1% | — | $6K | active |
| Samuel Basallo | 0.1% | — | $4K | active |
| Dylan Beavers | 0.1% | — | $4K | active |
| Tatsuya Imai | 0.1% | — | $8K | active |
| Sam Antonacci | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| George Lombard Jr. | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
Probability sum: 102.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 19 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
2%
0%
1%
1%
0%
0%