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Last recorded probability
100%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+0.7pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 11 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michele Tafoya | 99.5% | +0.7pp | $3K | awaiting resolution |
| Royce White | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| David Hann | 0.1% | — | $2K | awaiting resolution |
| Adam Schwarze | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Julia Coleman | 0.1% | — | $2K | awaiting resolution |
| Alycia Gruenhagen | 0.1% | — | $2K | awaiting resolution |
| Kristin Robbins | 0.1% | — | $2K | awaiting resolution |
| Tom Weiler | 0.1% | — | $2K | awaiting resolution |
| Jim Nash | 0.1% | — | $2K | awaiting resolution |
| Christopher Brooks | 0.1% | — | $2K | awaiting resolution |
| Raymond Petersen | 0.1% | — | $3K | awaiting resolution |
| Mike Ruoho | 0.1% | — | $2K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: 99.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)