Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Mike Kennealy win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?
0%
Limited history-0.1pp
Lifetime volume $13KCloses 1 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
98%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
98%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Kennealy | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $9K | active |
| Michael Minogue | 98.0% | — | $8K | active |
| Brian Shortsleeve | 2.2% | -0.5pp | $9K | active |
Probability sum: 100.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Massachusetts, scheduled to take place on September 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
2%