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Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 20 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 100.0% | +54.0pp | $661K | awaiting resolution |
| England | 0.1% | -54.5pp | $442K | awaiting resolution |
| France | 0.0% | -59.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Uzbekistan | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Mexico | 0.0% | -9.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Norway | 0.0% | -16.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Iraq | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Portugal | 0.0% | -12.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| USA | 0.0% | -7.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Morocco | 0.0% | -7.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Spain | 100.0% | +59.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Iran | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Switzerland | 0.0% | -7.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| New Zealand | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Scotland | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Colombia | 0.0% | -10.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Belgium | 0.0% | -5.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Egypt | 0.0% | -0.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Cape Verde | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Japan | 0.0% | -3.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Brazil | 0.0% | -18.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Paraguay | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Germany | 0.0% | -8.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Sweden | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Netherlands | 0.0% | -12.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Canada | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Turkiye | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Croatia | 0.0% | -2.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ecuador | 0.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Algeria | 0.0% | -1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Senegal | 0.0% | -1.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Uruguay | 0.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ivory Coast | 0.0% | -1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Australia | 0.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Austria | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| DR Congo | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| South Korea | 0.0% | -0.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| South Africa | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ghana | 0.0% | -1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Czechia | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Qatar | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Curacao | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Jordan | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Tunisia | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Panama | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Haiti | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.